Monitoring the Implementation of the IMF Program and EU Assistance №19

The government has presented its vision for reforms over the next 18 months in the form of the Government Action Programme, and has also developed a Priority Action Plan for 2025. This is a fairly systematic effort: it sets out operational objectives, steps to achieve them and performance indicators. At the same time, the document did not undergo proper consultation, with only five working days provided for submitting proposals, and it was submitted after the deadline. The Parliament will provide the political assessment.

Discussions on the terms of a new cooperation programme with the IMF are ongoing, but its key parameters have not yet been determined. Unfulfilled commitments are expected to be carried over into the new programme, and the IMF may take a more demanding approach. Meanwhile, ahead of the next, ninth review, six of the nine structural benchmarks have been met as of the end of September.

Updating Ukraine’s Plan for the Ukraine Facility has not prevented further delays in reforms. The European Commission has approved the changes, although they still need to be formally approved by the Council of the EU. Therefore, this presentation uses the Plan’s new “calendar”. Some of the reforms that were brought forward have stalled: in particular, draft law No. 12087-d (the electricity integration package) was not adopted in the third quarter. Reporting on the fulfilment of the indicators is significantly delayed (the report for the second quarter has not been submitted), which is delaying subsequent – even partial – payments. The restructuring resulting from the merger of several ministries has also done little to accelerate progress.

Ukraine is still looking for resources to cover the deficit. The government estimated the remaining need for international financing at USD 37.4 billion for 2025–2026. The 2026 state budget draft envisages a 21.7% increase in external borrowing, to UAH 2.12 trillion, which is expected to finance 42.3% of total expenditure.