New Monthly Enterprises Survey №44, December 2025

The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 44-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for December 2025.

The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.

The field stage of the 44-th wave lasted from December 18 -31, 2025. The enterprise managers compared the work results in December 2025 with November, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (December 2025), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months,depending on the question.In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).

This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.

Main results of the 44-th monthly enterprise survey:

  • In December 2025, the recovery remains fragile: short-term improvements in business activity indicators are not translating into stable expectations due to rising long-term uncertainty.
  • Long-term business expectations have slightly deteriorated, while uncertainty over the two-year horizon has increased significantly. Medium-term uncertainty regarding the overall economic environment has been rising for three consecutive months, while remaining broadly unchanged for business activity at enterprises after an increase last month. At the same time, expectations for the six months for business activity have slightly worsened.
  • Year-on-year recovery rates have broken a three-month slowdown trend and have increased, albeit marginally. Enterprise performance indicators (month-on-month) have improved for the second consecutive month, while expectations continue a downward trend.
  • The main obstacles for businesses remain labor shortages and work hazards. Power supply disruptions and rising prices share third place. Assessments of economic policy have not changed significantly and remain mostly neutral.