The full May 2026 business survey report has been released

The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 49-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for May 2026.

The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.

The field stage of the 49-th wave lasted from May 15 -31, 2026. The enterprise managers compared the work results in May with April 2026, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (May 2026), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).

This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.

Main results of the 49-th monthly enterprise survey:

• Signs of a moderation in the pace of economic recovery have become increasingly evident. Nevertheless, business sentiment remains resilient, while key expectations have broadly stabilized despite the persistent impact of labor market constraints and security-related risks.
• In May 2026, long-term uncertainty increased marginally following a decline in the previous month. At the same time, businesses’ long-term expectations remained broadly unchanged after a modest improvement recorded in April.
• Medium-term uncertainty interrupted its gradual upward trend, with no material changes observed in assessments of either the overall economic environment or enterprises’ business activity. Likewise, six-month business expectations remained broadly stable following the significant deterioration reported in the previous month.
• The year-on-year pace of economic recovery weakened for the second consecutive month.
• Month-on-month enterprise performance indicators interrupted a two-month upward trend, while short-term business expectations deteriorated for the second month in succession.
• Businesses anticipate a further deceleration in price growth over the next three to four months. At the same time, the perceived importance of rising prices as a constraint on business activity has continued to decline.
• No significant changes are expected in the number of workers levels or in the number of workers on forced leave over the next three to four months. However, difficulties in recruiting qualified personnel remain elevated, underscoring the persistence of labor market shortages.
• Labor shortages, rising prices, and security-related risks associated with operating under wartime conditions continue to represent the principal constraints on business activity, although their relative importance has shifted moderately compared with previous survey rounds.

The research was conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).

Key points from the report are available at the links below:

Business Activity Recovery Index Falls to Nearly -0.2 for the First Time in Three Years — IER Survey 

Labor Shortage Worries a Record 69% of Enterprises — IER Survey