The Short-Term Impact of the EU’s Global Steel Overcapacity Regulation on Ukraine’s Exports to the EU

The report assesses the short-term impact of the proposed EU regulation on global steel overcapacity on Ukraine’s exports to the European Union. It examines the rationale behind the proposed regulation, its key provisions, the structure of Ukraine’s steel exports to the EU, and the methodology used to assess its potential impact.

The analysis applies a partial equilibrium model to evaluate several scenarios for the application of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) to Ukraine, including both country-specific and global TRQs. Depending on the scenario, the report estimates that the proposed regulation could reduce Ukraine’s exports to the EU by USD 0.5–1.2 billion, or 26–63% compared with 2025 export levels.

The findings identify a permanent exemption for Ukraine from the proposed regulation as the most favourable outcome. The second-best option would be a temporary exemption, in line with the 2025 decision to extend the suspension of the EU’s steel safeguard measures for Ukraine for a further three years.

Should country-specific TRQs be introduced for Ukraine, their impact would depend on the reference period used to determine quota allocations and on the product categories covered. According to the report, 2025 would be the most appropriate reference period for establishing country-specific TRQs.