Ukraine’s Resilience at Risk: How the EU Can Bridge the 2026 Financing Gap

After almost 12 years from the start of Russia’s invasion to Ukraine and with almost four years of full-scale war, Ukraine demonstrates a remarkable resilience ensured by a fully functional Government, active business and population, and backed by international donors’ support. Against the backdrop of the war of attrition and millions of destroyed lives, Ukraine’s financing needs are persistently greater than available support from the international partners. The speed and the amount of financial support are key to meeting the competing demands at the front line and as a functioning state. The new fiscal year is around the corner and there is still no clarity on how to finance the budgetary gap Ukraine faces for 2026 at about EUR 20-25 bn. The role of the EU in providing predictable and timely support will be greater in the coming years, considering the new security doctrine of the U.S. Decisions that the EU will take in the coming months on military and macro-economic support and the use of immobilised Central Bank of Russia (CBR) assets will determine whether Ukraine can close its 2026 financing gap without a macro-financial crisis.

The full version of the document is available in English below.