RUS full-scale war continues having a devasting impact on Ukraine’s economy.
Real GDP is on a growth path since 2023, but will not reach its pre-war level in the medium-term.
We forecast GDP growth at 2.0% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026:
Demand side: Private consumption and rebuilding investment activities will remain the main drivers in 2025 and 2026, but without large-scale reconstruction;
Supply side: Among the key sectors, only trade grows in 2025: labour supply shortages, logistical disruptions remain key challenges.
Trade deficit expands and is not offset by primary and secondary incomes: current account deficit forecast of 11.8% of GDP in 2025 and 17.9% in 2026.
Average inflation is forecast to remain in double digits in 2025 with 13.2%, but decelerates to 6.7% in 2026.
Budget financing will remain scarce despite ERA. The government debt ratio is estimated to increase further, reaching 100% in 2026.
Forecast remains subject to large uncertainty related to further development of the war.
