Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine №261, October 2026

  • According to the IER estimate, real GDP fell by 2.4% yoy in September, compared with a 1.9% yoy decline in August.
  • In September, Ukraine imported 76.1 ths. MWh of electricity, 59% less than in August. Electricity exports increased by 24% compared with August to 473.7 ths. MWh.
  • As of 15 October, natural gas stocks reached 16 bcm. Underground gas storage facilities were 37% full.
  • The Cabinet of Ministers partially allowed exports of Ukrainian natural gas.
  • In September, rail shipments of grain amounted to 1.42 m tonnes (-36% yoy). In August, railways transported 10.32 m tonnes of cargo (-29% yoy).
  • Goods exports fell by 6% yoy in dollar terms in September, recovering somewhat from the sharp decline in August due to a change in the export structure.
  • Goods imports increased by 18% yoy in September from an already high base to USD 8.9 bn, the highest level this year.
  • Economic difficulties caused by russian attacks are negatively affecting budget revenues.
  • Delays in fulfilling commitments to the EU are slowing loan disbursements under the Ukraine Support Loan and Ukraine Facility. As a result, the Government suspended capital expenditures.
  • Consumer inflation accelerated sharply to 10.0% yoy in September from 8.1% yoy in August.
  • The NBU raised the key policy rate by another 0.5 pp to 16% p.a.
  • NBU international reserves declined to USD 47.1 bn in September amid substantial interventions to support the hryvnia.