Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine №260, September 2026

  • According to Ukrstat, real GDP in the first half of the year was close to last year’s level.
  • Contributions to growth from real net exports and government consumption were negative.
  • According to the IER estimate, real GDP increased by 1.2% yoy in August, supported by a strong agricultural performance.
  • In August, Ukraine imported 184 thous. MWh of electricity, 5% more than in July.
  • Electricity exports increased by 64% compared to July, to 382.1 thous. MWh.
  • As of 5 September, Ukraine had accumulated 10.32 bn m³ of natural gas (+8% mom). Storage facilities were 34% full.
  • From 22 July to early September, cargo handling at the ports of Greater Odesa declined more than 15-fold.
  • In August, rail shipments of grain amounted to 1.30 m tonnes (-54% yoy).
  • In July, railways transported 12.85 m tonnes of cargo (+0.1% yoy).
  • Goods exports fell by 18% yoy in August to USD 2.6 bn due to the blockade of seaports and russian attacks on exporters.
  • Goods imports increased by 23% yoy in August to USD 8.2 bn despite logistics complications.
  • The Government reported an existing fiscal gap already in the 2026 budget, caused by Ukraine’s failure to fulfil commitments to international partners, lower-than-planned revenues, russian attacks and higher defence spending needs.
  • The Government submitted the draft 2027 State Budget to the Verkhovna Rada on time.
  • However, the budget contains a large fiscal gap.
  • Consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% yoy in August amid higher fuel prices.
  • The NBU raised the key policy rate by another 0.5 pp to 16% p.a.